Resilience of tropical forest and savanna: bridging theory and observation

This thesis explores the hypothesis that tropical forest and savanna can be alternative stable states. Feedbacks of tree cover with fire across the tropics, and with rainfall in the Amazon basin, are studied by linking modelling to the analysis of broad-scale remote-sensing data. Time series of tree cover and fire observations are used to quantify the strength of the fire-tree cover feedback loop along climatic gradients. From these empirical results a spatially explicit and stochastic fire-tree cover model is developed. The model predicts that forest and savanna are fire-driven alternative stable states across rainfall conditions, but the exact rainfall range depends strongly on rainfall seasonality. Next, regional-scale effects of tree cover on rainfall in the Amazon basin are presented. Forest transpiration is estimated and the trajectories of that transpired water through the atmosphere are simulated. It is found that one-third of all rainfall in the Amazon basin originates from the basin; two-thirds of that water has been transpired by trees at least once. Forests in the southern half of the basin contribute most to the resilience of other forests, whereas forests in the south-western Amazon are most dependent on transpiration from forests elsewhere in the basin. The relative contribution of forest transpiration to rainfall is higher in drier months and in drier years. In conclusion, tree cover will not change smoothly with climate change and possible transitions between forest and savanna will likely be relatively abrupt. The main mechanism behind such tipping points is a feedback between tree cover and fire. Increasing rainfall seasonality will strengthen that feedback and in the Amazon at least, reduced forest transpiration resulting from tree-cover loss will enhance that seasonality.</p

How motifs condition critical thresholds for tipping cascades in complex networks: Linking Micro- to Macro-scales

In this study, we investigate how specific micro interaction structures (motifs) affect the occurrence of tipping cascades on networks of stylized tipping elements. We compare the properties of cascades in Erd\"os-R\'enyi networks and an exemplary moisture recycling network of the Amazon rainforest. Within these networks, decisive small-scale motifs are the feed forward loop, the secondary feed forward loop, the zero loop and the neighboring loop. Of all motifs, the feed forward loop motif stands out in tipping cascades since it decreases the critical coupling strength necessary to initiate a cascade more than the other motifs. We find that for this motif, the reduction of critical coupling strength is 11% less than the critical coupling of a pair of tipping elements. For highly connected networks, our analysis reveals that coupled feed forward loops coincide with a strong 90% decrease of the critical coupling strength. For the highly clustered moisture recycling network in the Amazon, we observe regions of very high motif occurrence for each of the four investigated motifs suggesting that these regions are more vulnerable. The occurrence of motifs is found to be one order of magnitude higher than in a random Erd\"os-R\'enyi network. This emphasizes the importance of local interaction structures for the emergence of global cascades and the stability of the network as a whole

Comment on ‘The central role of forests in the 2021 European floods’

In July 2021, parts of Germany and Belgium were hit by severe floods. In 'The central role of forests in the 2021 European floods', published in Environmental Research Letters (2022 Environ. Res. Lett. 17 064053), Insua-Costa et al reported that 'moisture from North American forests was a more important source [of the rainfall contributing to the event] than evaporation over nearby seas'. This suggests that the event was (partly) caused by anomalous contributions from North America. In this comment, we show that this is a misleading interpretation, as: (1) the relative contribution of North American land was below average for the time of year; and (2) rather, the anomalous moisture that contributed to the floods originated mainly from European land. However, consistent with Insua-Costa et al, we find no enhanced evaporation from Europe prior to the event and we therefore conclude that there is a lack of evidence for the 'central role' of forests in the 2021 European floods

Network motifs shape distinct functioning of Earth’s moisture recycling hubs

Earth’s hydrological cycle critically depends on the atmospheric moisture flows connecting evaporation to precipitation. Here we convert a decade of reanalysis-based moisture simulations into a high-resolution global directed network of spatial moisture provisions. We reveal global and local network structures that offer a new view of the global hydrological cycle. We identify four terrestrial moisture recycling hubs: the Amazon Basin, the Congo Rainforest, South Asia and the Indonesian Archipelago. Network motifs reveal contrasting functioning of these regions, where the Amazon strongly relies on directed connections (feed-forward loops) for moisture redistribution and the other hubs on reciprocal moisture connections (zero loops and neighboring loops). We conclude that Earth’s moisture recycling hubs are characterized by specific topologies shaping heterogeneous effects of land-use changes and climatic warming on precipitation patterns

Feedback in tropical forests of the Anthropocene

Tropical forests are complex systems containing myriad interactions and feedbacks with their biotic and abiotic environments, but as the world changes fast, the future of these ecosystems becomes increasingly uncertain. In particular, global stressors may unbalance the feedbacks that stabilize tropical forests, allowing other feedbacks to propel undesired changes in the whole ecosystem. Here, we review the scientific literature across various fields, compiling known interactions of tropical forests with their environment, including the global climate, rainfall, aerosols, fire, soils, fauna, and human activities. We identify 170 individual interactions among 32 elements that we present as a global tropical forest network, including countless feedback loops that may emerge from different combinations of interactions. We illustrate our findings with three cases involving urgent sustainability issues: (1) wildfires in wetlands of South America; (2) forest encroachment in African savanna landscapes; and (3) synergistic threats to the peatland forests of Borneo. Our findings reveal an unexplored world of feedbacks that shape the dynamics of tropical forests. The interactions and feedbacks identified here can guide future qualitative and quantitative research on the complexities of tropical forests, allowing societies to manage the nonlinear responses of these ecosystems in the Anthropocene

Dynamics of Tipping Cascades on Complex Networks

Tipping points occur in diverse systems in various disciplines such as ecology, climate science, economy or engineering. Tipping points are critical thresholds in system parameters or state variables at which a tiny perturbation can lead to a qualitative change of the system. Many systems with tipping points can be modeled as networks of coupled multistable subsystems, e.g. coupled patches of vegetation, connected lakes, interacting climate tipping elements or multiscale infrastructure systems. In such networks, tipping events in one subsystem are able to induce tipping cascades via domino effects. Here, we investigate the effects of network topology on the occurrence of such cascades. Numerical cascade simulations with a conceptual dynamical model for tipping points are conducted on Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi, Watts-Strogatz and Barab\'asi-Albert networks. Additionally, we generate more realistic networks using data from moisture-recycling simulations of the Amazon rainforest and compare the results to those obtained for the model networks. We furthermore use a directed configuration model and a stochastic block model which preserve certain topological properties of the Amazon network to understand which of these properties are responsible for its increased vulnerability. We find that clustering and spatial organization increase the vulnerability of networks and can lead to tipping of the whole network. These results could be useful to evaluate which systems are vulnerable or robust due to their network topology and might help to design or manage systems accordingly.Comment: 22 pages, 12 figure

Network motifs shape distinct functioning of Earth’s moisture recycling hubs

Earth's hydrological cycle critically depends on the atmospheric moisture flows connecting evaporation to precipitation. Here, we convert a decade of reanalysis-based moisture simulations into a high-resolution global directed network of spatial moisture provisions. We reveal global and local network structures that offer a new view of the global hydrological cycle. We identify four terrestrial moisture recycling hubs: the Amazon Basin, the Congo Rainforest, South Asia and the Indonesian Archipelago. Network motifs reveal contrasting functioning of these regions, where the Amazon strongly relies on directed connections (feed-forward loops) for moisture redistribution and the other hubs on reciprocal moisture connections (zero loops and neighboring loops). Earth's moisture recycling hubs are characterized by specific topologies shaping heterogeneous effects of land-use changes and climatic warming on precipitation patterns

Network motifs shape distinct functioning of Earth’s moisture recycling hubs

Earth's hydrological cycle critically depends on the atmospheric moisture flows connecting evaporation to precipitation. Here, we convert a decade of reanalysis-based moisture simulations into a high-resolution global directed network of spatial moisture provisions. We reveal global and local network structures that offer a new view of the global hydrological cycle. We identify four terrestrial moisture recycling hubs: the Amazon Basin, the Congo Rainforest, South Asia and the Indonesian Archipelago. Network motifs reveal contrasting functioning of these regions, where the Amazon strongly relies on directed connections (feed-forward loops) for moisture redistribution and the other hubs on reciprocal moisture connections (zero loops and neighboring loops). Earth's moisture recycling hubs are characterized by specific topologies shaping heterogeneous effects of land-use changes and climatic warming on precipitation patterns

Moisture origins of the Amazon carbon source region

The southeastern Amazon has recently been shown to be a net carbon source, which is partly caused by drying conditions. Drying depends on a number of factors, one of which is the land cover at the locations where the moisture has originated as evaporation. Here we assess for the first time the origins of the moisture that precipitates in the Amazon carbon source region, using output from a Lagrangian atmospheric moisture tracking model. We relate vegetation productivity in the Amazon carbon source region to precipitation patterns and derive land-cover data at the moisture origins of these areas, allowing us to estimate how the carbon cycle and hydrological cycle are linked in this critical part of the Amazon. We find that, annually, 13% of the precipitation in the Amazon carbon source region has evaporated from that same area, which is half of its land-derived moisture. We further find a moisture-recycling-mediated increase in gross primary productivity of roughly 41 Mg carbon km−2 yr−1 within the Amazon carbon source region if it is fully forested compared to any other land cover. Our results indicate that the parts of the Amazon forest that are already a net carbon source, still help sustain their own biomass production. Although the most degraded parts of the Amazon depend mostly on oceanic input of moisture, further degradation of this region would amplify carbon losses to the atmosphere

Feedback between drought and deforestation in the Amazon

Deforestation and drought are among the greatest environmental pressures on the Amazon rainforest, possibly destabilizing the forest-climate system. Deforestation in the Amazon reduces rainfall regionally, while this deforestation itself has been reported to be facilitated by droughts. Here we quantify the interactions between drought and deforestation spatially across the Amazon during the early 21st century. First, we relate observed fluctuations in deforestation rates to dry-season intensity; second, we determine the effect of conversion of forest to cropland on evapotranspiration; and third, we simulate the subsequent downwind reductions in rainfall due to decreased atmospheric water input. We find large variability in the response of deforestation to dry-season intensity, with a significant but small average increase in deforestation rates with a more intense dry season: With every mm of water deficit, deforestation tends to increase by 0.13% per year. Deforestation, in turn, has caused an estimated 4% of the recent observed drying, with the south-western part of the Amazon being most strongly affected. Combining both effects, we quantify a reinforcing drought-deforestation feedback that is currently small, but becomes gradually stronger with cumulative deforestation. Our results suggest that global climate change, not deforestation, is the main driver of recent drying in the Amazon. However, a feedback between drought and deforestation implies that increases in either of them will impede efforts to curb both.</p